Each quarter, two lucky beans get the chance to go to the Lumina Intelligence Food Strategy Forum to gain fresh new data, have a peek into upcoming trends and take a dive into sector performance. The insightful debrief is then followed by the mouth-watering Food Study Tour which takes us on a round trip, first-hand experience of the latest trends and food crazes.

The latest session, on Tuesday 18th June, focussed on Indulgence vs. Healthy Eating with a close eye on what that means for the pub sector.

The Market:

  • The economy is stabilising as average earnings are expected to outpace inflation for the first time in two years, meaning that consumers have more money to spend and fostering their appetite for food and drinks out of home following a period of cutting back
  • Consumer confidence is at its highest level since January 2022
  • Staff costs, energy costs, business rates and employment have had a major effect on businesses
  • The general election may have an impact on the food and beverage world based on varying manifestos addressing staff costs, employment and recruitment, energy costs and business rates, Brexit and obesity legislation
  • The out of home market is expected to grow 2.4% from 2024 to 2027
  • Coffee shops, bakery, sandwich shops and travel spots are forecast to see the strongest growth going forwards
  • There is a huge opportunity in the travel and transport sphere for foodservice operators over the next few years, as an investment of £43 billion is set to support the railway infrastructure from 2024 to 2029. This would include station and rail upgrades, new lines and new stations, therefore, making way for brands and operators to explore new site openings
  • Service-led restaurants remain behind its pre-covid value (down by 3.6 percentage points)
  • Limited edition ranges and brand collaborations are helping drive sales and excitement by tapping into the consumer demand for novelty and differentiation
  • Footfall is picking up in city centres and high streets, going hand in hand with travel hubs being built up
  • Alfresco dining continues to attract consumers – operators started to invest in their outdoor spaces during the pandemic and this trend is set to continue as late afternoon is becoming a top day part. This time frame of 3pm-6pm dining opens up a lot of new opportunity for operators
  • Both hotter and wetter weather is having an impact on crops and costs at all levels of the supply chain
  • Technology is having a huge impact for contract caterers as residents of a retirement village can order through an app – making note of which dishes are most popular and others that aren’t which helps to avoid food waste, whilst keeping up with demand.
  • 28% of consumers are planning to spend more, but only when the weather gets better

Consumer Update – How To Engage Your Audience:

  • 25-34 year olds are the most engaged and have bounced back following the height of the cost of living crisis
  • It’s crucial for operators to make the most of their online and social presence to keep their customers engaged
  • Using product descriptors to emphasise the quality and brand credentials is a vital way to communicate value to consumers
  • Consumers are looking for something different when they dine out of home, so there’s a huge opportunity to create an experience whilst offering innovative food and drink offerings
  • Dinner occasions had the largest share in terms of dayparts and drink-only occasions are increasing too. This is at the expense of breakfast, which lost the most share at -0.4ppts
  • The food to go sector has been performing well, based on increased footfall in high streets and city centres.
  • Younger consumers are most likely to occupy the food to go market, though they’re also more value-driven – there’s a real opportunity here for brands to invest in limited edition products, and subscription schemes to reach this demographic
  • Delivery has slightly declined as consumers are opting for in-person visits and experiences
  • There are opportunities for operators serving coffee and non-alcoholic drinks, as consumers are shifting away from drinking alcohol under the growth of the health and wellness trends, driven by younger consumers
  • There are opportunities for pubs to tap into the ‘summer of sport’ in the form of atmosphere creation, big screens and live entertainment, with the Euros, Olympics and Wimbledon. This is especially key for the 18-34 demographic, who are more likely to be watching sport when visiting pubs
  • Restaurants can leverage the knowledge that consumers are choosing less expensive channels, by re-engaging less affluent families with promotions to create value offerings
  • The growth of consumers returning to their routines means high streets and city centres continue to perform strongly – these locations are key to target to capitalise this growing footfall
  • The return to habitual routines has driven share of Friday and weekend eating out occasions vs 2 years ago, whilst mid-week share has seen decline
  • Office workers are forced to modify their spending habits and cut back on snacking and breakfast occasions

The Latest Operator Trends:

  • We are seeing portfolio optimisation in the branded restaurant segment leading to flat outlet growth, whilst they expand high-performing brands and reevaluate underperforming sites to improve profitability in tough market conditions
  • Some brands, particularly within coffee shops and QSR brands, are diversifying their formats within the travel hub and convenience space, often with strategic partnerships that already operate in this space
  • Digital innovation and automation are key to driving efficiencies for businesses. We are seeing this in formats such as mobile app ordering, touch screen ordering systems, robotics and AI implementation
  • Customisation is key as brands are using technology to allow consumers to add more personalisation to their orders
  • Marketing strategies are being elevated, with some brands introducing immersive experiences to take consumers on a multi-sensory journey
  • Experience-led dining is an important element for customers so this is something operators can capitalise on
  • Top drivers for growth include – Portfolio Optimisation, Format Diversification, Strategic Partnerships, Digital Innovation and Innovative Marketing

Concepts To Watch:

  • Saba, the UK’s first self-serve Ramen bar: blending convenience with culture by offering a unique crossover of grocery shopping and dining. Customers have a choice of over 25 instant ramen options to pick off the shelf and have the option to customise with the help of a robot chef.
  • Auld Hag’s The Shoap, London’s first Scottish deli: authentic produce showcasing Scotland’s culinary heritage combined with all-day dining to hit different day-parts and cater to varying consumer routine. Championing Scottish growers and producers.
  • Grape & Fig, the UK’s first ‘Build Your Own British Cheese Box’ bar: born out of a gap in the market which celebrates typical wedding food, adapted for the everyday. The ‘edible art’ boxes comprise 100% British cheese and charcuterie from artisan producers and offer a premium grab-and-go option to London consumers, whilst allowing them to explore a more unique dining experience.

Viral Food & Drink Trends:

  • Ramen Carbonara – A fusion of the much-loved Japanese ramen & iconic Italian carbonara – went viral on socials with videos of consumers trying the Buldak carbonara ramen, recreating it at home. It taps into the wider fusion food trend, earning a place on Pinterest’s 2024 trends under ‘Melty Mashups’
  • SAL-NOM – the new fish-free alternative in Europe – is the latest innovation from BettaF!sh, the first firm developing 100% plant-based alternatives with seaweed. Consumer demand for fish-free alternatives which are both sustainable and nutritious is growing
  • Reinventing Mango – we are seeing this tropical ingredient have its moment, with 94m posts on TikTok under mango. We are seeing consumers and operators alike using mangos in new ways – from crepe rolls, crepe cakes, viral mango ice cream and viral desserts such as Mongo Bingo from Coco Playa
  • Diageo’s ‘Flavour Forecast’ – The beverage company identified the five flavour trends that will shape how global consumers will socialise this summer, using AI to track global conversations across online and social media:
    – Umami Universe: turmeric, gochujang
    – Spicy Spark: jalapeño, pepperoncini, chilli
    – Tropical Takeover: tamarind, guava, passionfruit
    – Treating Temptation: coffee, hazelnut, nutmeg
    – Bloom Harvest: elderflower, rhubarb

Food Concept Study Tour

Following the morning of insight presentations, we headed to Soho to see these trends in action, with a focus on “Pub polarisation: health vs indulgence”.

Our sunny afternoon started at GRAPE & Fig, which explores the concept of ‘edible art’ through cheese boxes. Although they started in 2017 catering to weddings and events, they recently opened the UK’s first Build Your Own British Cheese Box bar. Tapping into the trends of premium, customisation and provenance, we enjoyed a mixture of cheese, charcuterie, fruit and nuts, including a personal favourite of truffle cheddar.

With our savoury taste buds satisfied, we headed to Shack-Fuyu, which although serves up popular Yōshoku-style Japanese fusion dishes, we were there to try its iconic cult favourite – the Kinako French Toast. Consisting of fluffy, soft and gooey insides and a crunchy caramelised crust with a dusting of kinako (roasted soybean flour) and served with a matcha flavour soft serve ice cream, there’s no wonder this is the only dessert on the menu!

Next stop on our trend tour was to the iconic Soho gastropub The Devonshire. After opening in 2023, this pub’s restaurant has been top of list for many, with tables being notoriously difficult to get hold of due to its status on social media. Not only is the pub famous for its restaurant, which utilises its in-house butcher and bakery to produce top-quality pub food, but the bar area is also renowned for pouring the perfect pint of Guinness – which we were lucky enough to try. The bar also offers an indulgent bar snacks menu including sausage on a stick and cheese and ham toasties.

Our next stop saw us visit another venue with social media hype status – Supernova. Opening in 2023, this smash burger joint has taken the capital by storm with its large Instagram following, long queues and simple menu with chic design. This venue offers just two burgers, a classic and house burger in order to focus operations on perfecting the quality of its burgers. We got to try the house cheeseburger, featuring x2 beef patties (smashed to perfection to remain juicy with crispy edges), American cheese, onions, pickles and the all-important house sauce.

If we weren’t full enough, we had one more savoury stop of the tour, to Arancino who serve delicious arancini in a range of flavours. This venue brings authentic Sicilian street food to London, and capitalises on the rising grab-and-go market. Although they are renowned for their signature beef arancini with slow cooked beef ragu, we opted for the pistachio and pancetta variant which did not disappoint.

Our final stop took us to ChinChin Ice Cream, and although our stomachs were beginning to flag, we stayed strong to sample some of their iconic ice cream flavours – a welcome respite from the heat of the day. This venue specialises in hand churned ice cream made using liquid nitrogen to create a smooth, velvety and indulgent dessert flavoured with experimental flavours and toppings. We tried a burnt butter caramel ice cream topped with pistachio crumb, and a tonka bean ice cream topped with bee pollen honeycomb.

A HUGE thank you to the Lumina Insights team for providing the insights and running the always-exciting food tour. Keep an eye on our socials to see more!